Even if SDSM manages to somehow remain on top of its narrow majority in Parliament, the crisis the party is in shows how remarkably the balance of power has changed in Macedonia.

As recently as half a year ago, SDSM rejoiced in causing trouble within VMRO-DPMNE and was trying to stir factions and remove Hristijan Mickoski as party leader. This was result of the narrowly contested 2020 general election, in which SDSM, with the help of the BESA party, scored a slim victory over VMRO and formed a ruling coalition with 62 votes out of 120 seats in Parliament. A number of former VMRO officials, led by security chief Saso Mijalkov, joined forces with SDSM in trying to weaken the opposition. They were proposing various candidates as SDSM approved party leaders, including former Minister Nikola Todorov and Kavadarci Mayor Mitko Jancev. Mijalkov was in the midst of preparing a “congress” of his supporters to claim legitimacy as VMRO leader, when he was forced to flee the country to try to avoid detention.

What just happened!?

But now the shoe is on the other foot. Ever since the BGNES interview a year ago where he declared his readiness to accept a new round of concessions toward Bulgaria – even more extensive than the Prespa Treaty with Greece – Zoran Zaev began bleeding supporters from the so-called Skopje wing of is party. Independent minded people also got fed up with the never ending list of corruption scandals and the authoritarian rule. Mismanagement of education and the Covid crisis, and ultimately the devastating Tetovo hospital fire exposed the Government as corrupt, incompetent and venal.

VMRO-DPMNE swept the local elections, winning all major cities and Skopje urban centers except for two that SDSM carried. VMRO also returned the favor by supporting spoiler candidates where it couldn’t win outright, such as recently ousted SDSM official Maksim Dimitrievski as Mayor of Kumanovo. This now leaves Dimitrievski as a contender as SDSM party leader.

Zaev controls the “rural faction” of the party, made mostly of his personal acolytes and supporters, but with him out of the picture, it’s not clear how long they can last against rival factions, made up of the older party guard centered around Branko Crvenkovski, Radmila Sekerinska or even the left wing radicals around Mila Carovska. Zaev’s coalition partners are also trying to wring out new concessions from him to preserve the thin majority, and threaten to bring SDSM down if he doesn’t deliver. This very unstable state of affairs is not expected to last long.