In May, gross wages in Hungary grew by 9.4% compared to last year, despite peaking unemployment and a long-lasting coronavirus-induced economic slowdown. However, reported increases in the average wage characterizing most sectors of the economy may be misleading. The analysis of the methodology used by the Central Statistical Bureau (KSH) might explain why, writes Hungary Today.
Gross wages increased to HUF 398,800 (EUR 1,160) with private-sector wages coming to HUF 409,800 in May, KSH said on Friday. Accounting for inflation, these numbers suggest a real wage growth of 5.1% as compared to the previous year. It is also notable that gross wages increased by almost 4% between February and May, during a time-frame when the country was mostly under strict lockdown to limit the spread of the coronavirus. So these figures may be surprising, considering that they come amidst worsening unemployment and an economic crisis induced by the pandemic. However, a closer look at the methodology used by KSH might shed some light on the reasons behind these nominal increases.
Firstly, the numbers disclosed by the statistical bureau are averages, not median values. This means that the vast majority of workers actually earn less than the official average wage. In fact, according to an earlier study of leftist institution Policy Agenda, about 77% of workers earned less than the official average wage in 2018. A criticism of using an average instead of a median value is that it allows for some distortion by extremely high salaries earned by top executives – therefore, it does not reflect the actual income of most workers.
Secondly, the data used by KSH only measures the wages of those working at a company employing five or more people. This results in the exclusion of those working for micro enterprises, earning lower average wages from their analysis. It is highly likely that the inclusion of this data would decrease the reported numbers significantly. Another group whose income is not analyzed is part-time workers. KSH only uses data reflecting the wages of full-time workers. Since the coronavirus crisis resulted in the termination of numerous part-time contracts and has affected part-time workers disproportionately, a study that does not reflect the wages of this group can be misleading.
Thirdly, the coronavirus crisis resulted in the layoff of thousands of unskilled or low-skilled workers whose low wages are no longer reflected in the statistics – as these people are now among the unemployed. Since the majority of those fired in recent months represent the lower end of the wage spectrum, the increases in the average wage may be at least partially explained by the exclusion of their data from the calculations. This problem highlights that the reported increases may be the reflection of a social problem instead of a cause for optimism.
While the figures disclosed by the Central Statistical Bureau allow for a certain degree of optimism, the understanding of the methodology used by the institution allows for a deeper and more realistic understanding of the statistics.