The results of the latest IPIS poll showed the mood of the citizens, namely that the support for the government is falling drastically and the support for the opposition is increasing. Analyzing the poll commissioned by “Vecer.mk”, it can be seen that it is no longer a question of whether the VMRO-DPMNE coalition will win, but what the difference will be.
Regardless of whether the elections will be regular or early, it is unlikely that the government will agree to leave early, and VMRO-DPMNE will score a big victory. It will not be a surprise if they reach the number of 61 MPs or close to that number.
For the victory of VMRO-DPMNE, it will not make a big difference if SDSM and DUI perform with joint lists. In any case, the opposition has a definite advantage.
If we compare the votes of VMRO-DPMNE on the councilor lists in the local elections when it won about 285,000 votes and in the first round of the presidential elections when VMRO-DPMNE won 319,000, in these elections the opposition can get about 400,000 votes.
If it is known that in almost all elections, a million voters turn out and each deputy “weighs” about 7,000 votes, the number of about 57 deputies that can be won by the VMRO-DPMNE coalition is reached.
On the other hand, a consolidation of the Albanian opposition bloc led by Besa and the dissatisfied group in DUI can be expected. That block could have almost the same number of votes as DUI, which is very important for the future coalition partner of VMRO-DPMNE among the Albanian parties.
SDSM is now trying to create an atmosphere in the public that although they are aware that VMRO-DPMNE will win, none of the Albanian parties will want to form a coalition, which is far from reality and numbers.
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