An exceptionally narrow result between the two leading candidates, turnout also on the verge of the elections being declared unsuccessful in the second round, and a candidate with 70.000 votes which could go either way. This is the outcome of the first round of Macedonian presidential elections elections held on Sunday.

The momentum is clearly with the opposition. A year and half after suffering a humiliating municipal election defeat, and in light of systematic persecution and media attacks, the conservative VMRO-DPMNE easily equalled the result not only of its chief rival, the left wing SDSM party, but of the largest ethnic Albanian party DUI as well, which supported the SDSM candidate Stevo Pendarovski.

VMRO candidate Gordana Siljanovska – Davkova was visibly jubilant at the press conference after the results were in and called Prime Minister Zoran Zaev to prepare early general elections.

If the Government is serious, it would start thinking about being true to its word for once. The sovereignty comes from the people, Siljanovska said, calling on the Zaev Government to fulfill its promise and call early general elections, Siljanovska said.

VMRO leader Hristijan Mickoski listed all the cities which supported SDSM in 2017, but now turned to the VMRO column, including some of the urban, bellwether parts of Skopje like Aerodrom, and Bitola, Macedonia’s second city.

The Government lost its legitimacy. Zoran Zaev’s downfall has begun and everybody is aware of it. The people said they are not satisfied, and the people have not forgotten all the evil that was inflicted on them. The political persecution, the name issue, the crime and corruption… The people were not asked about any of this. But, better days are coming and we will stay together until the final victory, Mickoski said.

Siljanovska and Pendarovski were within a few thousands votes. Pendarovski won, only just, with 323.846 votes, ahead of Siljanovska’s 319.240. Both had the same share of votes – 42 percent – the difference going down to the decimal points.

The shift is dramatic if we consider the 2017 municipal elections. SDSM alone had more than 415.000 votes in late 2017, and now fell far short of the result even with DUI coming to its aid. VMRO-DPMNE had roughly the same result in 2017, but as of last night the momentum seemed clearly with the opposition, which is now working to bring back a portion of its voters who decided to boycott the election, in protest against the name change. The yes bloc in the September 2018 name issue referendum, led by SDSM and DUI, had slightly more than 600.000 votes, putting the drop SDSM and DUI experienced yesterday in a stark perspective. Zaev and Pendarovski tried to put a brave face on the outcome, declaring themselves the winners of the first round, which might technically be true, but the faces in the SDSM camp said it all.

Siljanovska easily bested Pendarovski in nearly all ethnic Macedonian districts, painting the map red.

Where Pendarovski was able to narrow the margin is in the ethnic Albanian districts, and the second round of the elections may come down to the direction the third candidate, Blerim Reka, will take. Reka won 80.000 votes, and immediately said that he will not “bargain with them”, indicating he will not publicly endorse a candidate. But, Ziadin Sela, leader of the Alliance of Albanians party which is one of the two parties supporting Reka, joined VMRO in its call on Zaev to resign and hold early elections. Reka’s solid electoral showing, as DUI vacated the ethnic Albanian field by not running a candidate of its own who could gauge its support against Reka, elevated the Albanian opposition parties and gave them solid grounds to challenge DUI.

The second round of elections takes place on May 5th, and whoever wins the more votes, is elected President. The only caveat is that turnout needs to be over 40 percent – or 723.253 voters. This number was bested, but only narrowly this Sunday, and if VMRO fails to draw more of its boycott voters to the polls, or if Reka’s supporters stay out of the second round, the elections could end up invalid.