A new poll published by the M-Prospekt agency, reveals that VMRO-DPMNE is expanding its lead over SDSM. If elections were held tomorrow, the opposition party would win 25 percent of the vote, against 23 percent of SDSM, the poll showed.
The agency broke the results down by ethnicity and it showed that, among ethnic Macedonians, VMRO-DPMNE’s lead is even higher 34 to 26.6 percent. SDSM relies to its position as the third best placed party among ethnic Albanians to narrow down its losing margin among Macedonians.
The poll was conducted before Zaev’s debacle in Berlin and Brussels, where he was denied his request to open EU accession talks this summer. It is the second poll in a row which reveals SDSM behind VMRO, after IPIS had the parties ranked 21.2 against 19.5 percent. This poll also showed that VMRO is the dominant party among ethnic Macedonians.
It is a dramatic drop for SDSM, which easily won the 2017 municipal elections, winning over 400.000 votes and sweeping nearly all municipal offices across the country. The party fell to mere 322.000 votes in the first round of the presidential elections in 2019 – and even that was achieved after a pre-election coalition with the DUI party. SDSM, which should be able to stand alone against VMRO, required the help not only from DUI but for nearly all other satellite political parties, and the Albanian opposition parties, to win the presidential elections in the second round. Now the poll shows that the Albanian opposition, mainly the Alliance of Albanians and BESA, are collectively stronger than DUI, opening another weak spot in Zaev’s coalition.
In this light, Zaev’s regime resorted to the police truncheon once more, and we witnessed the arrests of a number of opposition officials, including some fierce critics of Zaev’s abuses this morning. With the EU accession talks doubtful and the prospects of a broad Government which will organize early elections becoming ever more likely, Zaev seems resolute to use the police as much as he can for as long as he can, as the main tool against his political opponents.
It’s doubtful whether the latest arrests can help Zaev arrest his slide in the polls. The narrative that his party is fighting crime and corruption, conveniently located exclusively in the opposition, is already baked into his poll results. His likely failure to deliver tangible benefits from the imposed and humiliating name change is altering the calculus, as is his failed promises of new jobs, infrastructure projects, an average salary of 500 EUR. The daily dose of humiliation includes the relinquishing of Macedonian historic figures, ever broader use of the imposed name and growing inter-ethnic tensions which Zaev and Pendarovski used to mobilize the Albanian vote in their favor.
No political party in post war Europe had to endured what VMRO-DPMNE has, in what is nominally still called a democratic country. With hundreds of officials charged or arrested, an unprecedented number of political prisoners and members of Parliament who had their immunity revoked or face investigations. With members of Parliament being deliberately arrested and then released once they break and agree to vote the way the Government and the courts want them to. And yet, despite all these pressures, the opposition party is coming on top in the polls. This, clearly scares the Government.
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