The Financial Times has once again shared its forecast for the new year. What follows is an excerpt of their predictions for 2019, from Brexit to Trump.
Will Brexit be stopped?
Yes, according to FT’s Philip Stephens. “At the eleventh hour Britain will rescue itself from this act of self-harm. Brexit means Brexit, Theresa May said in 2016, but after two years of bitter wrangling even the prime minister’s own party cannot agree what that means in practice,” Stephens wrote.
Will Jeremy Corbyn become UK prime minister?
No, according to FT’s Sebastian Payne. “The opposition leader has smoothed his public image, but failed to reach beyond Labour’s base. Britain may well have a general election in 2019, but it is far from certain he will win.”
Will France’s Emmanuel Macron get his reforms back on track after the yellow vests protests?
Yes, FT’s Ben Hall predicts. “The French president has no choice. To give up would be to cease to exist politically.”
Will populists make big gains in European Parliament elections?
Yes. According to Gideon Rachman: “These elections are perfectly set up for populists and nationalists to make big gains. Polls suggest immigration is the top issue in most countries.”
Will the Democrats attempt to impeach President Donald Trump?
Yes. FT’s Edward Luce says, “The Robert Mueller probe will come to a flaming conclusion in early 2019 with a flurry of indictments and a damning report. Mr. Trump’s dismissal of its findings — of conspiring with Russia to hack Democratic communications and co-ordinate their release — will enrage the Democratic base. The speaker, Nancy Pelosi, will agree to hearings. Mr. Trump will be impeached by a simple majority in the Democratic House. But the Senate, needing a two-thirds majority to convict, will exonerate him. The scene will be set for a ‘rule of law’ presidential election in 2020.”
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