As the DUI – SDSM led coalition is trying to get to 81 votes needed to amend the Constitution, and threatens to pressure VMRO-DPMNE representatives to get to this number, they may lose three seats they were counting on.

The reason for this is the split in DUI, where a faction led by Izet Mexhiti will formally create a separate party in mid August. They count on three seats in Parliament, including the notoriously unreliable Kastriot Rexhepi, who went missing or was kidnapped ahead of the vote of no confidence in 2021 and saved the Zaev Government.

The coalition is counting on the votes of the opposition Albanian parties without preconditions – the amendments are aimed at strengthening the Bulgarian position in Macedonia and could undermine the Macedonian national identity – a position the Albanian parties broadly support. But it is also likely that, given the bitter relations with DUI, these parties could put forward new additional demands, such as making the Albanian language co-official in Macedonia. This could make the position of the coalition even worse, and make their goal of bribing or blackmailing enough opposition MPs impossible.