SDSM members are aware, and Zaev also knows that, despite all the support from the international community, as well as the power that the government provides, VMRO-DPMNE, led by Hristijan Mickoski, has a higher rating than SDSM and Zoran Zaev at the moment.
Former senior SDSM official, MP and journalist Safet Bisevac, said in a television show last week that if this trend of continued growth in the rating of VMRO-DPMNE continues, the outcome of the next elections is more than clear.
Two things happened to Zaev today. Firstly, Petar Atanasov’s resignation, the first serious blow on Zaev’s policies, with serious accusations of the way this government operates. And secondly, the statement of the French Ambassador Timonier: “why is everybody pushing on a date,” and the lack of response to his statement by the government, Bisevac said on the “Samo vistina” show.
A poll conducted before Zaev’s debacle in Berlin and Brussels, showed that VMRO-DPMNE is expanding its lead over SDSM. If elections were held tomorrow, the opposition party would win 25 percent of the vote, against 23 percent of SDSM. It is a dramatic drop for SDSM, which easily won the 2017 municipal elections, winning over 400.000 votes and sweeping nearly all municipal offices across the country. The party fell to mere 322.000 votes in the first round of the presidential elections in 2019 – and even that was achieved after a pre-election coalition with the DUI party. SDSM, which should be able to stand alone against VMRO, required the help not only from DUI but for nearly all other satellite political parties, and the Albanian opposition parties, to win the presidential elections in the second round. Now the poll shows that the Albanian opposition, mainly the Alliance of Albanians and BESA, are collectively stronger than DUI, opening another weak spot in Zaev’s coalition.
It’s doubtful whether the latest arrests can help Zaev arrest his slide in the polls. The narrative that his party is fighting crime and corruption, conveniently located exclusively in the opposition, is already baked into his poll results. His likely failure to deliver tangible benefits from the imposed and humiliating name change is altering the calculus, as is his failed promises of new jobs, infrastructure projects, an average salary of 500 EUR. The daily dose of humiliation includes the relinquishing of Macedonian historic figures, ever broader use of the imposed name and growing inter-ethnic tensions which Zaev and Pendarovski used to mobilize the Albanian vote in their favor.
On the other hand, VMRO-DPMNE stands alone, with growing support among the Macedonians, the undecided, in a number of municipalities that SDSM won convincingly in 2017, and after all institutional and non-institutional strikes and pressures directed at the opposition. The fall of SDSM and their coalition pendants was announced in an IPIS poll in mid-June, which also showed that VMRO-DPMNE has a lead of almost two percent ahead of SDSM-21.2 versus 19.5. The difference in the M-prospect poll is even greater, and this poll shows the lagging behind of the Zaev-DUI Albanian coalition partner, who is threatened by the Alliance of Albanians and BESA, two parties that demand early elections.
Both polls show that SDSM policies are rejected by ethnic Macedonians. In the IPIS poll, VMRO has the support of 27.8 percent of Macedonians, compared to 22.6 percent for SDSM, while according to M-prospect, as many as 34 percent of Macedonians support the opposition, and only 26.6 percent would vote for Zaev’s candidates, who must rely on Albanian votes to somewhat reduce the margin of defeat by VMRO.
In this light, Zaev’s regime resorted to the police truncheon once more, and we witnessed the arrests of a number of opposition officials a day before the announced Pride Parade, backed by the highest government – the president of the state and the government. The city is closed for the entire focus of the public to turn to the colors of the rainbow and the alleged late Europeanization of Macedonia.
Comments are closed for this post.